The moon is about to grow to be the primary extraterrestrial mining frontier, and most traders could also be backing the unsuitable gamers. Whereas enterprise capital pours into area startups promising to revolutionize lunar useful resource extraction, the actual winners might be corporations which have spent 150 years turning rock into income: Rio Tinto, BHP, Glencore and their friends.
As CEO of Forbes-Area, a mission partnership and progress companies company working with area corporations globally, I’ve suggested each rising area ventures and established industrial gamers on area market entry methods. A mining govt requested me final month whether or not his firm ought to spend money on lunar useful resource extraction. Right here’s why that issues — and what it’s good to do about it.
Lunar economics don’t match the VC playbook
The area mining market, projected to achieve $20 billion by 2035, represents monumental alternative. What the expansion projections don’t inform you is that area mining is far more than only a expertise problem, it’s a large capital deployment problem that dwarfs most startup funding cycles.
NASA’s Artemis program is driving a race to determine everlasting lunar presence. The prize: water ice in completely shadowed craters on the south pole, regolith for development and probably helium-3 for future fusion functions. A number of business landers reached the floor in 2025 — some efficiently, others much less so, however the infrastructure is coming sooner than most right here on Earth exterior the area business understand.
After talking with a number of lunar consultants, it appears extracting lunar water ice profitably requires deploying not less than 20 tons of mining tools to the floor. Even with SpaceX’s Starship probably dropping prices to $10 million per ton (a best-case inside price estimate, not a buyer worth), you’re $200 million only for tools supply.
Conventional mining corporations routinely deploy this sort of capital with decade-plus payback horizons. They perceive affected person capital. Enterprise capitalists want exits inside 5 to seven years. That timeline doesn’t even cowl the event part for lunar mining operations, a lot much less generate returns.
The experience hole no person needs to confess
Stroll via Rio Tinto’s autonomous operations within the Pilbara, and also you’re seeing the way forward for lunar mining. Distant operators management 200-ton vehicles from Perth, 1,500 kilometres away. AI optimizes drill patterns. Robotic methods deal with supplies in environments people hardly ever enter. They’ve perfected this over twenty years.
Lunar mining is essentially a useful resource extraction downside that occurs to happen on the moon. Area startups excel at getting there. However when you land, the onerous half is mining — and that’s the place most area corporations have zero expertise.
Why the moon beats asteroids
One other level to notice is that asteroids typically dominate headlines with their theoretical mineral wealth. However lunar mining will lead the primary wave for 3 causes:
Proximity. The moon is three days away. Close to-Earth asteroids require months-long transits with restricted home windows. When tools fails — and it’ll — the moon permits sooner response.
Infrastructure. NASA and worldwide companions are constructing it now: landers, communications, energy methods. Asteroid mining begins from zero.
Markets. Lunar mining will profit different area operations properly earlier than it advantages anybody on Earth. Water ice converts to rocket propellant for Mars missions and deep area exploration. The client base exists and has authorities backing. Asteroid mining should create its market from scratch.
Asteroids will matter finally. However the path runs via the moon, giving early lunar operators huge benefits when asteroid mining turns into viable.
What it’s essential to do now
This isn’t about watching historical past unfold. It’s about positioning earlier than the window closes. Right here’s what every stakeholder must do instantly:
Traders: Begin monitoring conventional mining corporations’ area investments — robotics partnerships, autonomous methods R&D, area logistics stakes. These quiet strikes matter greater than flashy bulletins. The successful investments will likely be mining corporations shopping for area capabilities, not area corporations studying to mine.
Area firm executives: You’re not competing with mining corporations — you’re their potential acquisition or partnership goal. Focus solely on space-specific issues: lunar entry, environmental survival, spacecraft operations. Discover mining companions now. Construct relationships at business conferences. Study their language. Your exit technique is determined by changing into indispensable to corporations with capital and extraction experience.
Mining executives: Your five-year window is already closing. First movers will form rules that govern this business for many years. Begin constructing partnerships with area logistics suppliers this quarter, not when infrastructure matures. Rent aerospace engineers. Set up an area centered division. Your rivals are already shifting.
Coverage makers: Clear property rights and useful resource possession frameworks will decide which nations seize worth. The Artemis Accords present basis, however home laws defining useful resource rights is pressing. Ambiguity helps nobody and favours worldwide rivals with clearer frameworks.
Recommendation for would-be lunar miners
Conventional mining corporations survived commodity crashes, nationwide battle, regulatory complexity and technological upheavals for over a century. They deploy huge capital throughout many years. They flip uncooked supplies into worthwhile merchandise at industrial scale.
Area startups carry innovation and velocity. However they’re making an attempt to grasp two extremely advanced issues concurrently — area operations and industrial-scale extraction.
The successful formulation isn’t mysterious: partnerships combining mining experience with area entry. Corporations constructing these bridges now will dominate the primary extraterrestrial economic system.
So, right here’s my problem for those who’re linked with the lunar economic system: What are you doing this week to place your self for lunar mining? Not when the market matures; this week.
The area mining revolution is coming, nevertheless it received’t appear like the funding neighborhood expects. Will probably be led by corporations that perceive each area above and the bottom beneath our toes. The long run belongs to those that can bridge each worlds.
Stirling Forbes is CEO of Forbes-Area, the area commerce consulate of Europe and a worldwide mission partnership and progress companies company. He holds an MSc in Area Research from the Worldwide Area College and has written extensively on area business commercialization.
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