By Vitality Innovation’s Modeling and Evaluation Crew
The free and open-source Vitality Coverage Simulator (EPS) pc mannequin developed by Vitality Innovation has turn out to be one of the vital broadly used instruments to tell policymakers and regulators about which local weather and vitality insurance policies will cut back greenhouse fuel emissions most successfully whereas creating the biggest financial and public well being advantages.
With EPS fashions now obtainable for dozens of nations and subnational areas, together with 48 U.S. states, we’re typically requested how the EPS works and what peer evaluation it has undergone by way of its growth.
The EPS is a System Dynamics pc mannequin created in Vensim, a device produced by Ventana Methods for the creation and simulation of System Dynamics fashions. The mannequin could be run by way of the free Vensim Mannequin Reader or by way of an online interface Vitality Innovation developed. Instructions on acquiring Vensim Mannequin Reader and the EPS can be found on the Obtain and Set up web page and customers can entry the mannequin on-line by way of the energypolicy.options web site.
Customers can entry superior options or modify enter information by downloading the EPS and working it regionally on their Mac or Home windows PC. All enter information is meticulously cited, publicly obtainable, and freely accessible and editable. Customers can run the mannequin in Vensim Mannequin Reader and immediately see how adjustments in enter assumptions change the mannequin’s outputs.
The EPS is an economy-wide, single area mannequin that runs in annual time steps. It may be configured to run to 2100, although it’s most frequently configured to run to 2050. The EPS consists of bottom-up inventory turnover monitoring in a number of sectors and a profit-maximizing least-cost optimized electrical energy mannequin, together with 24 hours throughout six completely different time slices. It additionally has native value minimization for sure sectors and applied sciences, for instance it selects the bottom value combine of recent autos offered in a given 12 months based mostly on demand for brand new autos.
The EPS is designed to mannequin dozens of insurance policies affecting vitality use and emissions. The mannequin first builds a business-as-usual case based mostly on enter information and present insurance policies. From there, the EPS permits customers to mannequin any mixture of included insurance policies and to customise the coverage stringency and timelines of these insurance policies. These insurance policies embody, for instance:
- Renewable portfolio requirements or clear vitality requirements
- Gas financial system requirements for autos
- Zero emissions automobile requirements and incentives
- Trade methane requirements
- Incentives for clear vitality applied sciences like these within the Inflation Discount Act
- Accelerated R&D development of assorted applied sciences
The EPS options an embedded downstream input-output mannequin that interprets adjustments in spending from coverage to adjustments in financial outcomes, resembling jobs, GDP, and employee wages. Modifications in demand for providers and items that consequence from macroeconomic adjustments are fed again into the mannequin on a one-year time delay, permitting the mannequin to regulate vitality demand and emissions based mostly on the financial system’s evolution.
The EPS additionally features a simplified downstream well being module that interprets adjustments in health-damaging pollution into adjustments in well being outcomes. The well being module depends on benefit-per-ton estimates from U.S. Environmental Safety Company modeling and follows normal practices for changing adjustments in emissions to adjustments in well being outcomes.
Vitality Coverage Simulator U.S. NDC coverage bundle results CO2e wedge diagram
1000’s of outputs can be found within the mannequin, however some key metrics embody:
- Emissions of 12 completely different pollution together with carbon dioxide, methane, N2O, fluorinated gases, NOx, SOx, PM2.5, PM10, black carbon, natural carbon, carbon monoxide and unstable natural compounds.
- Modifications in spending on capital, gasoline, upkeep, taxes and subsidies.
- Direct, oblique, and induced impacts on jobs, GDP, and worker compensation as an entire or disaggregated into 42 sectors.
- Untimely mortality and 10 different prevented health-related outcomes from decreased major and secondary particulate air pollution.
- Detailed electrical energy sector data together with hourly demand and provide, era, capability, and retail electrical energy charges.
- Gross sales and inventory of various autos and automobile applied sciences, resembling battery electrical, plug-in hybrid electrical, hydrogen gasoline cell, and gas-powered autos.
- Vitality utilized by completely different providers and applied sciences throughout the financial system, damaged down by gasoline kind
- Breakdowns of how every coverage inside a coverage bundle contributes to complete abatement and the cost-effectiveness of every coverage (e.g., wedge diagrams and price curves).
- Gas imports and exports, and related expenditures or revenues.
- Detailed accounting of vitality utilized by 25 completely different business sectors, together with building and agriculture, finish use (e.g., boiler, low/medium/excessive temperature warmth, machine drive) and gasoline kind.
Core methodologies and buildings within the EPS have undergone in depth peer evaluation as they had been developed, and we regularly search enter from outdoors specialists to switch the methodologies and tackle issues which are raised. Parts of the mannequin have been reviewed by people from prestigious establishments together with:
- American Council for an Vitality-Environment friendly Economic system
- Argonne Nationwide Laboratory
- Lawrence Berkeley Nationwide Laboratory
- Massachusetts Institute of Expertise
- Nationwide Renewable Vitality Laboratory
- RMI
- Stanford College
- Tufts College
- College of Chicago
- U.S. Environmental Safety Company
- World Assets Institute
Nationwide labs, universities, and companions who’ve peer reviewed the Vitality Coverage Simulator
