The Musk issue
As Elon Musk aligned himself with Trump on the marketing campaign path, Trump began to discuss extra about Mars. “Elon, get these rocket ships going, as a result of we need to attain Mars earlier than the tip of my time period,” he mentioned in September of 2024.
Shut observers of Trump throughout his first time period will be aware that each time the President spoke extemporaneously about house exploration, he spoke about sending people to Mars, at the same time as his administration was establishing the Artemis lunar program. He seems to have a pure affinity for the thought and understands the potent symbolism of securing the achievement throughout his administration.
Elon Musk is in a novel place to suggest and implement a nationwide coverage committing the U.S. to a crash humans-to-Mars program. In any case, Starship is a Mars ship.
How this might work is open to numerous pathways and pitfalls. SpaceX might be the beneficiary of a brand new NASA contract and billions in federal funds for a speedy Mars exploration effort. That might take time to work its approach via the congressional appropriations course of, which will not start in earnest till the incoming administration releases its price range request for FY 2026 someday subsequent Spring. Lowering the regulatory oversight of SpaceX is a extra speedy (and free) choice. Lately, SpaceX claimed the regulatory burdens to safe launch licenses for Starship unnecessarily slowed the tempo of this system, a criticism echoed by quite a few Republican members of Congress. Beneath Trump, the FAA will seemingly turn out to be a extra supportive accomplice.
Many specialists (myself included) consider {that a} 2028 timeline for human landings is not possible given the vary of technical challenges remaining to be solved; even so, we’d see actual progress in sending people to Mars at a fee unprecedented in human historical past.
Musk may additionally goal giant NASA applications for cancellation through the Division of Authorities Effectivity fee. The House Launch System, Gateway, Orion, and Mars Pattern Return may all simply be focused, whatever the monumental conflicts of curiosity Musk has when proposing to cancel applications that primarily compete with SpaceX initiatives. The fact of canceling these applications, a lot of which have loved rock-solid help from Congress over the previous decade, will likely be no simple process, and it’s unclear that the Trump Administration would need to choose a struggle with members of its personal social gathering, notably given the slender benefit Republicans maintain in each congressional chambers. That is an space to observe carefully.
There’s all the time the chance that Musk may have a falling out with Trump, a destiny acquainted to most of the President’s advisors over time. Each males are accustomed to being the first decision-makers and focal point of their respective arenas. Musk is just not an elected official; his affect is a perform of Trump’s embrace. If this occurs, and if it happens early sufficient in Trump’s subsequent presidency, the grand coverage pronouncements of Elon Musk may quantity to nothing in any respect.
The Vance issue
J.D. Vance, as Vice President, will assume the chairmanship of the Nationwide House Council, assuming Trump deigns to maintain it. In contrast to Mike Pence, a famous house supporter with a private ardour for the topic, Vance reveals no public proclivity for house. A lot of the effectiveness of the House Council is a perform of the Vice President’s dedication to the hassle and of their relationship with the President himself, which offers the mandatory affect to make efficient coverage within the government department. Absent this high-level consideration, the House Council might be much less efficient and even sidelined by Elon Musk.
