Market watchers might not agree on how a lot smartphone shipments grew on this 12 months’s third calendar quarter, however they do agree on one factor: the market is rising from its post-pandemic doldrums.
International market analysis firm Canalys reported Monday that worldwide smartphone shipments grew 5% in Q3 in comparison with the identical interval in 2023. The rise marks the fourth consecutive quarter of development, it famous.
In the meantime, in response to its calculations, IDC pegs the rise for a similar interval at 4%, marking the fifth straight quarter of development.
Canalys attributed the expansion to demand in rising economies, alongside the early phases of a alternative cycle in North America, China, and Europe.
IDC famous that the surge in Q3 shipments was led by sturdy development from Chinese language distributors like Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi, Lenovo, and Huawei.
Sterling Quarter for Apple
IDC Analysis Director for Worldwide Shopper Units Nabila Popal identified that the Chinese language cellphone makers weren’t alone in racking up good development numbers through the interval. “Whereas the expansion of the Chinese language gamers in rising markets has been an ongoing theme this 12 months, Apple additionally loved a 3.5% YoY development in shipments this quarter fueled by sturdy demand from the earlier fashions and the launch of the brand new iPhone 16 lineup,” she stated in a press release.
“In Q3 2024, older iPhone fashions, particularly the iPhone 15, carried out exceptionally properly as a result of heavy promotions and elevated advertising and marketing actions round Apple Intelligence,” she famous.
“Regardless of the staggered rollout of Apple Intelligence in markets outdoors the U.S., Apple will proceed to develop within the upcoming vacation season because it expects many purchasers to improve from the iPhone 13, iPhone 12, and prior fashions to a brand new AI-enabled smartphone, future-proofing their purchases for the long run,” Popal predicted.
In response to Canalys, Apple’s Q3 development enabled it to almost topple Samsung from its main place out there.
“Apple achieved its highest third-quarter quantity to this point and has by no means been nearer to main the worldwide smartphone market in a Q3 than now,” Canalys Analyst Runar Bjørhovde stated in a press release.
“The market’s shift in direction of premium units, intersected by an ongoing refresh cycle of units purchased through the pandemic, is benefiting Apple, significantly in its strong-hold areas akin to North America and Europe,” he famous.
“Regardless of a modest preliminary reception,” he added, “the iPhone 16 is predicted to assist Apple keep a powerful end to 2024 and assist momentum in H1 2025, significantly as Apple Intelligence expands into new markets and helps further languages.”
Samsung Retains Catbird Seat
In response to IDC, Samsung shipped 57.8 million telephones in Q3, giving it an 18.3% market share, in comparison with 59.5 million models and a 19.6% market share in Q3 2023. Apple, against this, shipped 56.0 million models through the interval, for a 17.7% share, in comparison with 54.1 million models and a 17.8% share in Q3 2023.
“Samsung retained its market management regardless of a drop within the whole variety of models shipped,” IDC Vice President for EMEA Shopper Units Francisco Jeronimo stated in a press release.
“Nevertheless,” he continued, “the corporate continues to develop its share within the premium section as the common costs elevated within the quarter pushed by a stronger mixture of Galaxy AI-enabled fashions.”
“The corporate began rolling out Galaxy AI options to different Samsung fashions and launched the brand new Galaxy Z Fold6 and Galaxy Z Flip6 foldables with Galaxy AI, which contributed to a greater efficiency within the premium section,” he defined.
“I believe the development in AI capabilities helps extra mainstream smartphones look extra engaging, and there’s an urge for food for AI all over the place,” Anshel Sag, a senior analyst with Moor Insights & Technique, a expertise analyst and advisory agency primarily based in Austin, Texas, advised TechNewsWorld.
Business in Existential Disaster
Canalys Analyst Le Xuan Chiew famous that the hole between the highest 5 distributors has narrowed, intensifying the aggressive panorama.
“Distributors are getting into the vacation purchasing season with stable momentum and cautious optimism, aiming to draw customers who’ve postponed upgrading their units in anticipation of offers throughout main occasions like 11.11 and Black Friday,” he stated in a press release.
“Nevertheless,” he continued, “the significance of efficient useful resource planning can’t be overstated. Whereas market circumstances are enhancing, demand stays fragile as distributors face rising international challenges in demand technology and regulatory hurdles, such because the EU’s eco-design directive.”
“Efficient provide chain administration, sustaining wholesome stock ranges, and optimizing gross sales and advertising and marketing fund allocation have gotten much more vital for market management.”
Bjørhovde advised TechNewsWorld that the smartphone trade is in an existential disaster now. “They must try to discover some attraction level that may pull some demand ahead,” he stated.
“Proper now, it’s all about generative AI,” he continued. “An enormous a part of the rationale why AI is an enormous subject is as a result of that’s the place a whole lot of smartphone distributors have their eyes on on the subject of discovering new monetization alternatives.”
“However persons are probably not understanding what a whole lot of these AI options are,” he maintained. “From an analyst’s aspect, there are a whole lot of actually attention-grabbing developments that may result in attention-grabbing merchandise and options in two, three, possibly even 4 years’ time. For customers proper now, although, an AI characteristic is only a fancy modifying software. It’s probably not one thing that vastly differentiates what a smartphone can do.”
Continued Development in 2025 Projected
Bjørhovde defined that the smartphone market has change into a tactical recreation. “It’s attempting to draw switchers and discovering alternatives for upselling to customers within the face of a transparent worldwide pattern, which is that telephones are getting used longer,” he stated.
“As a lot because the objective is to drive individuals to improve, the other is going on,” he continued. “Within the U.S., the service reductions or subsidies are usually not as sturdy anymore. So, really discovering some add-on options, new income streams, new alternatives, leaning in additional to B2B in some instances, that’s actually the place most smartphone distributors are targeted.”
He added: “It’s an trade that has moved from an idea of revolution into evolution. I believe the trade resides with its personal curse as a result of from 2007 as much as 2015, each launch was all the time vastly thrilling. There was all the time one thing sudden. Now it’s not as thrilling.”
The urge to improve, nevertheless, is stronger on the low finish of the market, he asserted. “Two or three years in the past, should you purchased a $150 cellphone, you’d in all probability get a 12-megapixel digital camera and a battery that may final you half a day, possibly a full day. Now, you may virtually get 50 megapixels on the digital camera. You may have two or three days of battery life. So the upgrades occurring within the price range section are actually fairly dramatic proper now.”
Wanting ahead to 2025, Sag predicted that the market ought to develop within the low-single-digits, which is regular for a mature market.
Bjørhovde additionally sees continued market development. “I believe we’re a 12 months and a half in all probability. And if Apple Intelligence begins to select up some new options and change into actually attention-grabbing in a 12 months’s time, that might be a driver to get extra individuals to resolve to improve at that time.”
