Why 6G dangers changing into an answer seeking an issue (Analyst Angle)

Nobody has but outlined what 6G really is, not to mention the way it will succeed economically

Editor’s word: That is the primary installment of a three-part collection from Analyst Vish Nandlall. Preserve an eye fixed out for components two and three, coming quickly.

Each cellular technology has been greater than only a technical improve. It has been an financial story about how worth is created, delivered, and captured. 3G, 4G, and 5G every got here to market with a well-formed enterprise mannequin and a transparent foundation of competitors. They grew within the context of increasing machine penetration and unmet demand, giving operators room to seize new worth. However because the trade now friends towards 6G, one reality is obvious: Nobody has but outlined what 6G really is, not to mention the way it will succeed economically. The desk isn’t set for fulfillment.

3G: The cellular web

3G emerged within the aftermath of the dot-com and telecoms crash, when capital was scarce and skepticism was excessive. Its worth proposition was easy however highly effective: cellular entry to the web. E mail and primary internet searching went from tethered desktops to handsets. Operators monetized this shift via tiered information plans, and the premise of competitors was protection and reliability. It was not glamorous, but it surely created a sturdy new income stream that carried the trade via a interval of economic retrenchment.

Macroeconomic context mattered. World cellular penetration was nonetheless in its progress part, with huge populations but to be linked. Buyers, although cautious, noticed upside in subscriber progress. Common income per consumer (ARPU) was modest however rising steadily as shoppers shifted from voice and SMS to information bundles. Capital depth was excessive, however the incremental income justified the spend.

4G: Cell apps and video

If 3G made cellular web doable, 4G made it indispensable. Launched in a market already primed by the iPhone and the App Retailer, 4G was the proper enabler of the mobile-first digital financial system. Video streaming, social networking, and ride-sharing grew to become mass-market realities. For operators, this was the golden age: shoppers willingly paid for extra information, limitless plans proliferated, and community pace grew to become the brand new aggressive benchmark. The worth was clear, the client want was confirmed, and operators captured significant progress.

The macro context was equally favorable. Smartphone penetration skyrocketed from below 20% in 2007 to greater than 60% by the mid-2010s. Knowledge consumption per consumer grew at double-digit annual charges. ARPU held agency, even rising in lots of markets as shoppers upgraded to bigger information packages. Capital expenditures had been important (eg spectrum auctions and LTE rollouts consumed billions) however operators loved income progress that exceeded price of capital. Within the U.S., Verizon’s revenues rose from $106.6 billion in 2010 to $131.6 billion by 2015, a compound annual progress fee of 4.3%. Buyers rewarded the sector, and for as soon as, telcos captured a significant share of ecosystem worth.

5G: eMBB, edge, and FWA

5G promised to repeat the 4G playbook: sooner speeds and revolutionary new use circumstances. Enhanced Cell Broadband (eMBB) was meant to raise client experiences, whereas edge computing and ultra-reliable low-latency communications had been touted as enablers for the enterprise. In follow, nevertheless, 5G grew to become a narrative of incremental beneficial properties. For shoppers, the distinction was sooner downloads, this proved helpful, however not transformative. The enterprise revolution by no means materialized at scale. As a substitute, Mounted Wi-fi Entry (FWA) emerged because the lone breakout, lastly giving telcos a reputable method to problem cable broadband. In any other case, 5G has largely been a churn-management software, a method to preserve clients from defecting moderately than a brand new progress engine.

Right here the macro context was far much less forgiving. By the point 5G launched, cellular penetration in superior markets had reached saturation (over 100% SIM penetration in lots of international locations). ARPU had been in regular decline for years as competitors intensified and regulators pushed down roaming and termination charges. Capital depth soared, with world operators spending greater than $600 billion on 5G networks by 2023. But income progress barely budged. Verizon’s CAGR from 2019 to 2024 was solely 0.6%. Returns on invested capital struggled to exceed weighted common price of capital, elevating severe doubts about whether or not the technology created or destroyed shareholder worth.

The query of 6G: What’s it?

This brings us to 6G. Each previous technology had a transparent reply: 3G was the cellular web, 4G was cellular apps and video, 5G was eMBB and FWA. However what’s 6G? No consensus exists. Futuristic visions just like the “Web of Senses” or holographic communications seize creativeness however crumble below financial scrutiny. And not using a clear worth proposition, 6G dangers changing into the primary technology launched with out a outlined enterprise mannequin.

The economics are daunting. Mid-band 6G, essentially the most practical path, calls for 20–100% greater capex than 5G. That might work if adoption is broad, requiring solely a ten–30% uplift in ARPU. But when 6G is area of interest (say, solely 10–25% of shoppers use premium AR/VR) ARPU would wish to rise by 100–275%, ranges the market has by no means tolerated. Briefly, the numbers don’t add up.

In the meantime, the macro context is even harsher than for 5G. Penetration is already saturated, leaving little room for subscriber-driven progress. ARPU continues to face downward stress from aggressive bundling, OTT substitution, and regulatory intervention. Capital markets are more and more skeptical of telcos’ capability to generate returns, punishing operators whose ROIC lags price of capital. With capital depth projected to climb once more, operators face the prospect of upper spending with no clear path to monetization.

The strategic crossroads

The trade can’t assume that efficiency enhancements alone will generate demand. As soon as a community is “adequate” for 4K video and cellular apps, incremental beneficial properties in pace or latency not transfer markets. And not using a new foundation of competitors, operators are left holding the invoice for infrastructure whereas hyperscalers and machine makers seize the application-layer worth.

That is the value-capture disaster on the coronary heart of 6G. The expertise roadmap is wealthy with potentialities, however the enterprise logic stays absent. Except the trade defines what 6G is (not technically, however economically) it would danger changing into a $600 billion train in constructing the world’s quickest bit pipe.

The stakes

The development from 3G to 5G teaches us that expertise alone doesn’t assure success. 3G, 4G, and 5G every are aligned with a transparent financial context, increasing penetration, and an identifiable foundation of competitors. 6G, in contrast, stands at a crossroads with out a outlined mannequin. The desk isn’t set. Except operators and requirements our bodies anchor 6G to confirmed demand drivers and sustainable enterprise fashions, it might go down in historical past not as a revolution, however as a cautionary story.